The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for its comprehensive spectrum of future greenhouse gas
emission scenarios for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. NAHRIM has continued to
update its Regional Hydroclimate Model (RegHCM) and investigate the impact of climate
change on the hydro-climate of the country based on IPCC AR5 over the geographical region
of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak, with the latest publication of “The Impact of
Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Malaysia Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
in 2021. Subsequent to this publication, NAHRIM has taken the initiative to update Technical
Guide No. 1 (Estimation of Future Design Rainstorm under the Climate Change Scenario in
Peninsular Malaysia) which was last completed in 2013 based on IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report. Among the improvements included in this updated Technical Guide No. 1 are on the
following various specifics: IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (from AR4 to AR5), types of
Global Climate Models (GCMs), scenarios (from stabilisation to RCPs scenarios), finer spatial
resolution (from spatial grid 9-km to 6-km resolution), and time resolution (from daily to hourly
for Peninsular Malaysia). A total of 154 rainfall stations (managed by DID) in Peninsular
Malaysia were selected to be analysed for the calculation of climate change factor (CCF)
associated with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years. Sub-daily climate change
factor is produced by which the daily precipitation data from RCP scenarios were downscaled
using Equidistance Quantile Matching (EQM) method. In addition to the 154 at-site CCF
values, CCF values for ungauged locations have been derived for regions (Eastern, Southern,
West Central and Northern), as well as 10 km and 20 km spatial resolution gridded CCF maps.
The average at-site CCF values for 154 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia are estimated
to be 1.12, 1.15, 1.17, 1.18, 1.18, 1.19 and 1.20 for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and
100 years, respectively. It indicates an increment of 12% to 20% of rainfall intensity for return
periods of 2 to 100 years, which leads to an increment of estimated design flood peak that
needs to be considered in hydraulic structure sizing. This technical guide is useful to assist
engineers, hydrologists and decision makers in designing, planning and developing water-related
infrastructure in response to shifting climatic conditions. It will serve to introduce an
approach of quantifying the scale of climatic change to surface water systems, particularly due
to variability and alterations in precipitation pattern, through the development of at-site and
regional climate change factor and formulation of the developed Intensity-Duration-Frequency
relationship by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) for future conditions.